Does Your Offense have the Runs?
Where does offensive football go from here? For the past decade we have seen some amazing offensive schemes come across our television sets. The talk of the decade has been tempo, and # of plays, and placing second the schemes and position drills. Coaches get anxious about changes that need to be made, and automatically look to add something without ever “running the numbers.” I am a firm believer that numbers and analytics do not lie, and if you follow the trail of statistics it will solve the mystery. No matter how explosive or lethargic an offense may seem, it all leads back to numbers. The idea better be more than entertainment and hype, it better produce.
What is the meaning of all of this? I will ask you in this article does your offense have the runs? In mean in basketball terms…Basketball is a game of ebb and flow. Runs and stops, possessions, fouls, free throws, field goal percentage, and did I mention possessions. I am an average college basketball fan, but one stat that I look at is scoring runs. When we watch our team go on a 17-4 run over the past 4 minutes, we know as a fan that is good. This stat analyzes the most important part of any athletic offense.
The scoring run breaks down:
These three areas tell us all we need to know about our offense. Not just the numbers beside these categories, but what numbers lead to these answers. That is what drives it.
As we were stating earlier, coaches often find remedies based of memories instead of proven evidence. We use emotional outcome and sentimental memories to make decisions and change. There are several coaches who never get down to the root of their offense or defense every year, because they leave the deciding evidence to generalized statements. If you base your triumphs and failures over just how you feel about the game, and some key points, you are just skimming the surface. Essentially you are just a fan with a coaches title. For some of us we may have no idea how to really get to the numbers we need to make decisions.
Lets look at this chart from the FBS website. Oklahoma was the number one overall offense in the nation of college football last year. They led in Total Yards, Yard/Play, Offensive TDs, and Yards Per Game. These stats are amazing, and the knee jerk reaction is wow.
Now have a look above of the offensive breakdown of the Sooners. There are several categories with abbreviations that you may not be familiar with. These are the numbers that lead to the categories we listed above that is the tell all, and this is how you find your deficiencies in your offense and defense. This is what is important. This is what you make decisions on. Here is how we define and do it.
Calculate Your Offensive Efficiency
First things First. For every game subtract your clock kills and any end of game management drives and scores. Make sure these are completely out of the equation.
Offensive Available Yards (OAY) = Total # of yards earned by the offense DIVIDED by the # of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
OAY, defines how well you possess the ball. This has time of possession, yards per play, total offense, all rolled into it. What do you do with each possession.
Offensive First Down Rate (OFD) = Percentage of drives that result in touchdown or at least 1 first down
OFD, defines the success rate of each possession. Yards lead to first downs, and that leads to points. This tells you your play calling and scoring. It result of the OAY equation.
Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) = Percentage of touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earned at least 1 first down.
OTF, defines how you finish drives, and dives deeper onto the results of the OFD equation. If your touchdown rate is bad after achieving your first, first down, then you need to look at punts or turnovers. How is your play calling? Where are you stalling?
Offensive Turnover Rate (OTO) = Percent of Offensive Drives that result in fumble or Interception.
OTO, brings out the deficiencies in the OTF. This equation defines the rate per possession that you commit turnovers. It seems easy enough, but the rate of turnover is more alarming than the total turnovers column.
All of these equations can define the positive or negative “runs” in your offense. They all have a drastic mark on your success or failures, and they all lead you straight to the facts that will allow you to maximize your practices and define exactly what areas you need to focus on.
Also to let everyone know that my latest Install and Breakdown book is available at my store. It covers the Sail and Cross concept. This book goes into detail how we install these concepts along with, quarterback progression, detailed routes, and how we use the open grass reads for these concepts. Get it for $5 now thru Wednesday. Also everything in the store is 50% off thru Wednesday.
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